(named after her grandmother) is a sellside analyst. She works for
SilverSlacks Partners which is a gargantuan investment bank with 28
divisions and lots and lots of brokers. Those people have phones growing
out of their ears and they "sell research" to mostly institutional
buyers like mutual funds. They use Analysa's research as a kind of
"barter tool" in order to get the funds to trade with them - that is,
"We at SS will give you a good stock idea based on Analysa's work and in
return you buy those 100 million shares through us. We'll charge you a
pretty penny per share and everyone's happy." (As long as Analysa's
she is visiting California so she's up at 4 a.m. which is 7 a.m. at her
home office in New York. She has to sit on the company call each day
and give her 7 minute spiel on her media stocks. Today is all about a
meeting with the CFO of Disney. She has been negative on the stock,
doesnt like the lack of growth in the theme parks and is nervous about
commercial skipping on Tivo-like devices for their core cable property,
CFO is hoping to convince her that she is wrong - he knows that if she
upgrades the stock, it'll go up a buck or two and that's a good thing
for DIS shareholders. They meet at 6:45 a.m. California time and bounce
back and forth covering 43 different financial metrics that Analysa
cares about. After 20 minutes, the CFO realizes Analysa will be hard to
sway and he stops being engaged in the meeting which further alienates
Analysa as she begins to wonder what her write-up will be in describing
this meeting to her clients.
her 90 minute breakfast which seemed like only 7 hours, she returns to
her computer at the Los Angeles branch of SS Partners, and compares her
estimates of the next
quarter, next year, next 3 years for revenues and earnings with her new
things given the input of the Disney CFO. She makes adjustments. Theme
will be 5% better; the new movie slate looks awful - it'll be 20% worse;
new TV series look spot on - no changes. Something like that, anyway.
The process takes her and her minions 2 hours to parse.
Ahhh… wise minions, eh?
earnings number then suggests Disney will earn $2.15 next year instead of
$2.10. Slightly positive bias. But even slightly positive is better than
slightly negative. (If you’re not convinced, try getting some slightly negative
news from your doctor and call us in the morning.) So then Analysa wanders down
to her economics department - which proceeds to spin a tail of woe and doom
about the world coming to an end financially and that they expect GDP to be down 2% next year instead of flat like
the rest of Wall Street is expecting. Analysa believes that the CFO of Disney
has no clue about the headwinds he is facing in this brutal economy and thinks
that his estimates are optimistic. So the $2.15 based on his micro view of his
own world will really be more like $2.00 next year in Disney earnings. And it's
likely that the P/E (hm... not “Physical Education” - good try) multiples of
these names contract if in fact the world is in such bad shape. Maybe she
downgrades the stock further.
noon California time and she has 39 phone calls all marked "URGENT."
She returns the calls from employees of SS first. Then her Best Clients
list people (i.e. those who give the most commission). Then... everyone
else. About 2 hours later, after lots of 98 second calls with her
secretary madly dialing and then getting the callers to hold a few
minutes, she is done. It's after 2 pm California time and the markets
have closed. The few companies who were to report, reported. Lots of
yawns. Nothing urgent to be done on her end here.
for a long run. It has been a frustrating day. The stocks she liked
didn't move. The ones she didn't, didn't move. Lots of "eih." She makes
about a million bucks a year for doing this job so technically, today
she earned about 3 grand. That was about $300 an hour thus far for the
10 that she worked. She asks herself if it was all worth it. She feels
like she'll end up unmarried, unmothering, unloved.
But she gets home to a super nice hotel, a friendly kissy greeting from the doorman and logs on to JDate. There is always hope.