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Tolstoy sums up the war of 1812 like this: first a huge group of people moved from west to east and then from east to west.
Also, a man who came from nowhere somehow rose through the ranks to take control of the army, then escaped the dissolving government in France by invading Africa, then got a bunch of armies that could have resisted him to surrender instead, then finally got put at the head of the French government. (If you hadn’t guessed, he’s talking about Napoleon.)
In this version of the story, none of this is part of Napoleon’s plan – he’s just the right guy at the right time in the right place.
Tolstoy is saying that it isn't Napoleon's grand plan that makes the war happen – he is just the most visible figure while it is happening. But we, who always want to find the most awesome guy in the pack, decide that he’s a genius and treat him accordingly.