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Macroeconomics: Unit 5, Monetary Policy 0 Views
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Transcript
- 00:02
macro economics Ah la shmoop monetary policy or our government
- 00:10
leaders just love to take credit for the economy when
- 00:13
it's good when it's bad Well of course it's somebody
- 00:17
else's fault But when the stock market's Hyeon unemployment's low
- 00:20
inflation is under control well everyone from the president on
Full Transcript
- 00:23
down to the lowliest intern here it shmoop like me
- 00:27
likes to take a victory lap But how exactly do
- 00:29
government officials influence the economy Well there are two Big
- 00:33
East The first is fiscal policy AII taxes in government
- 00:37
spending And the second is through monetary policy I eat
- 00:40
controlling interest rates and the amount of money sloshing around
- 00:44
in the system in and Yank Think of the two
- 00:47
is the leads in a buddy cop movie Alright well
- 00:50
fiscal policy is the young brash firebrand who just got
- 00:54
his detective shield He wants to kick in every door
- 00:57
and just wants to get the perp alone in a
- 00:58
darkened alley for five minutes We'll then there's monetary policy
- 01:02
The old crusty veteran carries a revolver He's named old
- 01:06
Betsy That guy makes use of snitches stakeouts and while
- 01:10
painstaking research to get the job done all the point
- 01:13
they both influence the economy but in very different ways
- 01:17
But they have different strengths and weaknesses right Sometimes they
- 01:19
work against each other and you can argue about which
- 01:22
one is better at getting the job done in different
- 01:24
environments or situations Okay so let's take a closer look
- 01:27
at the crusty old monetary policy Well in the U
- 01:30
S Monetary policy is run by the Federal Reserve It's
- 01:34
what's called a central bank Basically every currency has won
- 01:38
The euro has the European Central Bank The pound has
- 01:42
the Bank of England The yen has the Bank of
- 01:44
Japan The Monopoly Board has your cousin Jimmy who always
- 01:48
insists on being a banker and who always mysteriously seems
- 01:51
to have more hundreds than he should in brief monetary
- 01:54
policy controls the amount of money in an economic system
- 01:57
and how quickly that money moves through the system when
- 02:01
there's too much money or if the money's moving around
- 02:04
too fast or when both happened at the same time
- 02:07
Well they're serious likelihood or risk of inflation It's like
- 02:10
downing three quick double shot espresso so it's fun for
- 02:13
a while but eventually you're nursing a headache and wishing
- 02:16
you had stuck with You know the camera on the
- 02:18
other side of things If there's not enough money or
- 02:21
if the money moves around slowly sluggishly well then economic
- 02:25
growth will be sluggish as well It's like if you
- 02:28
overreact to that tickle in your throat and take a
- 02:30
double dose of cough syrup Suddenly keeping yourself from face
- 02:34
planting into your keyboard becomes your main point of focus
- 02:37
Well how does all this work in real life while
- 02:40
the Fed controls monetary policy How how did they do
- 02:43
that Well it sets base interest rates It can run
- 02:47
what's called open market operations which help control the amount
- 02:50
of money in the system like buying and selling bonds
- 02:53
And it can control bank reserve requirements Basically how aggressive
- 02:58
banks can get when loaning their money how much risk
- 03:01
they contain We'll touch on each of those in a
- 03:03
little bit But first a little contrast with fiscal policy
- 03:06
That brash hot head of economic influence fiscal policy uses
- 03:10
the federal budget and taxation to change government spending and
- 03:14
influence consumption By changing the federal budget in the tax
- 03:17
rates will the government can tryto push aggregate demand up
- 03:20
or down to affect inflation Unemployment and output in the
- 03:25
U S Fiscal policy is run by Congress and by
- 03:28
the president which means it's kind of a hodgepodge of
- 03:30
compromise and contradictory influences Voters have a closer influence over
- 03:35
the people in charge so fiscal policy can get moved
- 03:38
around by general sentiment After fly off the handle rough
- 03:42
up a suspect Ignore the niceties of securing probable cause
- 03:46
right well on the other side you've got monetary policy
- 03:49
which involves open market operations the discount rate and reserve
- 03:54
requirements But it's more interesting if we call him Detective
- 03:58
Fed So we will right Well Detective Fed using monetary
- 04:02
policy also tries to control inflation unemployment and output but
- 04:06
it uses different tools to affect the money supply Same
- 04:10
goal Different approach Fed officials are nominated by the president
- 04:13
approved by the Senate Just like judges And like judges
- 04:16
they get a bit of a cushion from public scrutiny
- 04:18
They don't get replaced all that off and and people
- 04:21
don't generally know what they do either So that's just
- 04:24
fine Kind of like the veteran cop They like to
- 04:26
take their time think about what they're doing and look
- 04:29
at the long term when economists talk about monetary policy
- 04:32
while they break down into two groups Expansionary monetary policy
- 04:36
and contractionary monetary policy Those two things that's the coffee
- 04:40
versus the cough syrup distinction and we're talking about expansionary
- 04:44
monetary policy well gets things going Contractionary monetary policy slows
- 04:50
him down well Another way to say it Expansionary monetary
- 04:53
policy is used when the Fed wants the economy to
- 04:56
grow Say things get sluggish Too many people are unemployed
- 04:59
and overall output is low You know it's a three
- 05:02
o'clock You're getting drowsy It's time for your afternoon cup
- 05:05
of Joe to push you through to the end of
- 05:07
the day Contractionary monetary policy on the other hand is
- 05:10
used when the economy is heating up too fast Inflation
- 05:13
is a big threat or at least a fear here
- 05:15
When there's a lot of cash floating around and trading
- 05:17
hands really quickly well the value of cash starts to
- 05:20
drop Usually prices go up It's a bad sitch and
- 05:23
now it's time for the medicine Well the Fed sees
- 05:26
that there's a potential problem brewing time for a little
- 05:29
cough syrup to get symptoms under control so the system
- 05:32
doesn't run into a bigger problem down the road We'll
- 05:35
that dose of syrup might slow them down in the
- 05:37
short term but they'll be better off in the long
- 05:39
term like same philosophy for contractionary policy right So to
- 05:43
keep inflation under control the Fed sucks money out of
- 05:46
the economy by issuing bonds and they put up restrictions
- 05:49
to the borrowing of money by raising interest rates Will
- 05:52
the Fed does all this magic by controlling what's called
- 05:55
the discount rate I'II more or less the interest rate
- 05:58
that banks charge each other or the rate that banks
- 06:01
get for borrowing money directly from the Fed while other
- 06:05
interest rates are influenced by this base interest rate As
- 06:08
the discount rate rises so do the rates consumer get
- 06:11
when they go to the bank Well this discount rate
- 06:14
allows banks too quickly and easily get cash directly from
- 06:17
the Fed often overnight to prevent bank failures which are
- 06:20
like a really bad thing well a bank and also
- 06:22
call up other banks to get money When the loaned
- 06:25
money is coming from other banks the borrowing bank pays
- 06:27
the federal funds rate usually in interest so by adjusting
- 06:31
the federal funds rate the Fed is able to control
- 06:33
rates for the economic system is a whole and to
- 06:36
make a profit of bank has to set its consumer
- 06:38
interest rates higher than the federal funds rate That's called
- 06:41
the spread well The Fed funds rate then becomes the
- 06:44
floor for all interest rates Consumer rates will be some
- 06:48
rate higher than that right There is a spread or
- 06:50
so money basis points above the federal raid that consumers
- 06:54
borrowing money to pay higher interest rates dissuade investors from
- 06:58
taking risks and putting their money into new capital projects
- 07:01
The economy slows down and unemployment increases or employment decreases
- 07:06
But inflation gets curbed and risks of bubbles and other
- 07:09
big problems for an overheated economy decrease In the 19
- 07:16
eighties there was an inflation rate of yes 15% a
- 07:20
month at one point Thank you Vietnam War spending machine
- 07:24
All right remember Ah high inflation rate is dangerous since
- 07:27
goods and services increase in cost very quickly which hurts
- 07:30
people who rely on fixed income I'II bonds and savings
- 07:34
And we're thinking about you Grandma and Grandpa retiree and
- 07:38
that whole inflation thing While it generally impact spending decisions
- 07:41
in a way that distorts the economy Like let's just
- 07:44
look at a quick example to see how higher interest
- 07:46
rates impact the cost of things Well a person with
- 07:49
a 30 year home mortgage for 300 grand with a
- 07:51
fixed interest rate of 6.5% would end up paying $682,000
- 07:57
in change On the other hand if interest rates were
- 07:59
to sky rocket from six and 1/2 percent two on
- 08:02
eight 18% then they would end up paying 1,000,000 6
- 08:05
100,000 bucks and change in interest And that higher interest
- 08:08
rate would mean having to pay almost $1,000,000 mawr in
- 08:12
the latter case toe pay off that high price alone
- 08:15
And you can imagine what that does to the price
- 08:17
of real estate Right High interest rates usually mean a
- 08:20
little state prices get crushed Well During the late 19
- 08:23
seventies and early 19 eighties old crusty Detective Fede put
- 08:26
his gun sights clearly on fighting inflation The Fed increased
- 08:30
the discount rate significantly Borrowing rates hit almost 20% for
- 08:35
a few months The downside recession Yeah nobody was spending
- 08:39
money on nothing and the wheels of the U S
- 08:41
Economy well ground to a halt But Detective Fede put
- 08:44
the handcuffs on inflation Eventually price increases fell to acceptable
- 08:48
levels of just a few percent each year Once the
- 08:51
economy exited the recession well was set up for a
- 08:54
strong healthy bull market and a whole lot of growth
- 08:56
And hence you had the boom of the 19 eighties
- 08:59
and nineties And yes look up the S and P
- 09:01
500 stock chart how bad it was in the seventies
- 09:04
and how good it was in the eighties and nineties
- 09:06
Well another element of economic control lies in the Fed's
- 09:09
regulatory grips on banks The US uses a fractional reserve
- 09:14
banking system which means that when someone walks up to
- 09:17
a bank and deposit 100 grand the bank keeps and
- 09:20
will say $10,000 of it in its big fat involved
- 09:23
And then it loans out while some of the remaining
- 09:26
90,000 bucks or maybe all of it with interest The
- 09:29
bank wants to loan out as much as possible That's
- 09:32
their business They make money on loaning out your money
- 09:36
toe other people and pocketing a spread or their share
- 09:39
of the interest right They're paying you 2% loaning out
- 09:42
at 8% and they're keeping 6% there as spread Nice
- 09:46
business right Well if a bank it's too aggressive They
- 09:49
Khun Kit in a bad position Like if something goes
- 09:51
wrong with those loans that too many people wanna withdraw
- 09:54
their savings Well banks can get caught without enough cash
- 09:57
on hand in their vault when people want it And
- 10:00
then oh panic This exact situation happened in 1930 is
- 10:04
the U S Slid into to the depths of the
- 10:05
Great Depression People ran to withdraw their cash money from
- 10:08
the bank and when they couldn't get it back well
- 10:11
their hard earned savings went down with the banks Yeah
- 10:14
banks failed and money was lost And what people thought
- 10:17
was safe turned out to not be safe And that's
- 10:19
really bad Okay well to prevent bank panics and failures
- 10:22
the Fed Institutes reserve requirements These rules mandate how much
- 10:27
of its deposits banks need to keep in their vaults
- 10:30
Well banks will have a minimum fraction of their deposit
- 10:32
in reserve and 10% 5% for present 8% Something like
- 10:36
that kind of rainy day fund So when people come
- 10:38
in to ask for their money it's there The Fed
- 10:41
can adjust these reserve requirements as needed overtime by setting
- 10:44
higher reserve requirements while the Fed then acts in a
- 10:47
similar way to raising interest rates Like banks just won't
- 10:50
have all the money to loan that they'd liked alone
- 10:52
And so the prices go up Right Supplies limited with
- 10:55
demand flat goes up anyway so the bottom line is
- 10:58
then credit gets restricted Wealthy economy that is less fuel
- 11:02
to grow and there's less danger of inflation and overheating
- 11:05
At the other end of the rainbow lower reserve requirements
- 11:08
open up additional funds for lending amore fuel More potential
- 11:12
growth like that Kasaba Melon example We always talk about
- 11:15
Think about what grocery stores incentivized to sell Those melons
- 11:19
that cost a dollar each were used to selling him
- 11:21
for $3 but now they've got 18,000 of them in
- 11:24
the store and they'll lower The price is really quick
- 11:26
to maybe a dollar 10 just to get him out
- 11:28
so you don't have a whole bunch of rotting melons
- 11:30
in the store And that's kind of how banks work
- 11:32
There's volumes of money that suddenly come in They dropped
- 11:34
the price of renting that money so that people borrow
- 11:37
It doesn't rot right Well in 2017 the reserve requirement
- 11:41
for banks with more than 115,000,000 bucks or so in
- 11:44
assets was at its highest which was a 10% reserve
- 11:47
right This means that those banks had to hold 10%
- 11:50
of all their assets in cash form Banks with less
- 11:53
than that were only required to hold 3% write really
- 11:55
small bank It's less volatile and less of an issue
- 11:58
to national security of the tiny bank goes bust Okay
- 12:01
well the final tool for the Fed is open market
- 12:03
operations almost with almost the Fed buys and sells government
- 12:08
securities in the open market Trading usually happens with large
- 12:11
institutional investors like Fidelity and Capital Group and Franklin those
- 12:15
guys and with other government When the Fed sells TV
- 12:18
lt's notes bonds and other forms of promissory paper on
- 12:21
the open market well they effectively suck liquidity or liquid
- 12:24
money from the economy by giving these illiquid papers out
- 12:28
in exchange for that cash On the other hand when
- 12:30
the fed vise back their own illiquid paper while they're
- 12:34
releasing cash money back into the economy increasing liquidity and
- 12:38
encouraging people to spend think of it like this They're
- 12:40
trading cash for paper when cash gets put into the
- 12:43
economy Well that's more money for businesses and consumers to
- 12:47
spend And when they take cash out of the system
- 12:49
well it's the opposite depending on the current economic landscape
- 12:52
while the fat will have to choose which tools to
- 12:54
use and how to use them using the right tool
- 12:56
can put the economy in a great position in the
- 12:58
wrong tool 12 hurts Fortunately the Fed has never screwed
- 13:01
up the entire economy but they have helped that a
- 13:04
number of times All right quick recap here All economies
- 13:07
go through growth and contraction over time It's natural It's
- 13:09
normal Monetary policy is conducted by the Federal Reserve By
- 13:13
changing the rate at which money enters the economy the
- 13:16
Fed can influence end or prevent recessions and inflation When
- 13:20
the Fed uses the correct type of monetary policy at
- 13:23
the right time it can flatten out the peaks and
- 13:25
valleys of the business cycle making it more gentle for
- 13:28
all of us That is we'll have longer periods of
- 13:31
growth and shorter periods of contraction with fewer extremes If
- 13:35
done right it's a matter of a slight adjustments performed
- 13:38
all the time over time at the right rate a
- 13:41
little boost of energy to get over the hump of
- 13:43
a long work week A slight cut in the federal
- 13:45
funds rate A little oom mow mow mow buying maybe
- 13:49
tweak reserve requirements a bit lower just a little shot
- 13:52
of caffeine Or the Fed could dispense a little over
- 13:55
the counter medicine to take care of a short term
- 13:57
cold that's slowing things down Maybe EJ interest rate a
- 14:00
bit higher Ah little almost selling and pick up reserve
- 14:03
requirements a little bit Expansionary monetary policy is used to
- 14:07
encourage the economy to grow It's caffeine time Then in
- 14:11
these situations we see lower interest rates lower unemployment and
- 14:14
higher inflation rates Contractionary monetary policy is used to slow
- 14:18
down the economy usually with an eye to controlling inflation
- 14:21
This type of policy involves higher interest rates higher unemployment
- 14:25
and lower inflation rates Got those big Three Well the
- 14:28
reserve requirement is how much the Fed forces the banks
- 14:31
to hold cash in reserve The discount rate is the
- 14:35
interest rate that the Fed charges for loaning money to
- 14:38
banks and the federal funds rate Is the interest rate
- 14:40
set for loaning money generally between banks Well almost are
- 14:44
the securities that the Fed buys and sells toe Add
- 14:47
a remove money from the economy and liquidity story There
- 14:50
Those are the tools used by you know crusty old
- 14:52
detective fed If things were going good he likes to
- 14:54
move slow build a strong case and keep things as
- 14:57
even keel is possible And let's just hope he doesn't 00:15:00.306 --> [endTime] get too old for this
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