Downtrend

  

Categories: Metrics, Charts, Trading

It's a technical trading term. The stock was at $28 last quarter. Then, a month later, it hovered around $26. Then, a month after that, it kissed $22.

The trend: it's not your friend (if you're long the stock, anyway).

A relatively steady decline in the price of asset, or item of value, over a specified period of time is a downtrend. These chartist charts function a bit like an on-again off-again relationship. They don’t necessarily move in straight lines, and include short-term fluctuations when the value of an asset (or perhaps a relationship?) rise and then fall again. You can't view a forest with a microscope inspecting bark—you have to get one of those awesome Chinese drones and fly way over it to properly recognize a downtrend.

Imagine the lines on the polygraph chart you’d like to inflict on your sometimes ex—what you’re looking for in the lines on the page are lower highs and lower lows that fit within a broader pattern of decline that signals you may want to cut bait. Keyword: Tinder.

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Finance: What is a secular trend?13 Views

00:00

finance a la shmoop what is a secular trend well people don't read the

00:07

newspaper on paper anymore people die older Americans smoke less and yeah [Man reading newspaper]

00:14

maybe that's related to the dying older thing Americans text while going to the

00:19

bathroom a whole lot more it's more than they did 20 years ago [Man with phone in bathroom]

00:23

these are all secular trends meaning people will likely text even more while

00:28

they're going to the bathroom in the future [Man using smartphone]

00:31

all right well things that are happening quote forever unquote I eat not just in

00:35

a short-term cycle like an economic cycle like the decline of the economy's [Economic cycle appears]

00:40

growth is cyclical not secular and unless you believe we're gonna be nuked

00:45

by North Korea then oh yeah probably decline is secular but assuming the no [Missile explodes]

00:49

nuke solution the economy grows few percent a year then dips for a percent

00:54

in roughly seven or eight year cycles its approximated by the stock market

00:58

cycle in more or less why does all this matter cyclical versus secular well with

01:04

your stock market investor hat on a cyclical bet it's kind of like a white [Man puts stock market cap on]

01:09

mark on a bike tire it's gonna roll up up up and then down down down in a cycle

01:15

such that it won't doesn't really go anywhere over time like the paper and

01:19

pulp industry it kind of just stays flat but you can double your money triple [Cash piles appear]

01:23

your money if you buy it right at the bottom of the cycle and then sell it

01:26

right at the top of it right that's a cyclical bet and you can think airlines

01:30

well over time yeah they too don't really get all that more valuable but if [Aircraft lands on runway]

01:34

you buy them right like just when the New York Times is declaring that

01:38

whatever West Airlines is certain to now go bankrupt and then sell them when the

01:42

New York Times declares that whatever West Airlines is certain to be the next [Man reading newspaper]

01:46

Google yeah you'll have quote ridden the cycle unquote nicely there's a good coin

01:51

to be made from here to here but a secular trend is different like one

01:56

thesis might be while the world's getting hotter so people will want to [Man discussing secular trend]

02:00

drink more liquid that's a bullish secular trend for Coke and Pepsi or you

02:05

might notice that the internet along with Skype or Google Hangouts has made

02:09

where you live not nearly

02:12

as important as it used to be so there's a secular trend to live wherever [New York Times Square appears]

02:15

you want and that might mean a mass exodus away from the high tax expensive

02:20

to live in blue states to the cheaper red states secular long-term non

02:26

cyclical and yeah just to watch out for those nukes [Nuke with north korean flag on it appears in the sky]

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