Existing Home Sales

Categories: Econ, Tax

The housing market is divided into two main categories: new home sales and existing home sales.

Of course, all houses "exist" in the metaphysical definition of the term. It's not like part of the market involves fictional homes (a real estate agent getting a listing for the House of Usher maybe, or Gatsby's West Egg estate). The distinction between new and existing homes comes from whether the house had a previous owner or not.

If you move into a house that was newly-built for you (no previous owner), it represents a new home sale in the economic stats. If you buy a house where someone else lived before, it's an existing home sale.

The stats on U.S. existing home sales are released monthly by the National Association of Realtors (stats on new home sales come from the government). Existing home sales make up the largest share of the housing market by far, since most people buy a home previously owned by someone else, rather than building it from scratch.

However, a single new home sale is considered to have a larger overall economic impact than a single existing home sale. The new home sales involve things like new materials, wages for laborers to make them and the necessary purchase of all the appliances that go into a house (furnace, washing machine, refrigerator, etc.). Thus, existing home sales are seen as a good indicator of housing demand, while the stats on new home sales are considered to have broader economic implications.

Related or Semi-related Video

Finance: What are Lagging and Leading Ec...2 Views

00:00

Finance Allah shmoop what are lagging and leading economic indicators

00:10

Okay people Here's the economy kind of roller coaster ups

00:14

and downs and well but it generally goes up overtime

00:18

anyway More people more demand for toothpicks Ah bed sheets

00:22

hair growth formula You know that one really worked more

00:24

buyers of a one bedroom with a view of another

00:26

one bedroom with a view of Well yeah Wall Street

00:29

people and economists Yeah Those guys are always trying to

00:32

figure out where we are in these roller coaster cycle

00:35

ups and downs Are we here Are we here Are

00:38

we here Yeah very Carmen Sandiego So a leading indicator

00:42

is basically the canary in the mine shaft And if

00:44

you don't know the term Pita stopped this But it

00:47

used to be that miners would literally bring Canaris with

00:51

them into mine shafts Because canaries if they live to

00:55

tell the tale are extremely sensitive to gas Ah different

00:59

gas when there would be any kind of harmful leak

01:02

like from gas lanterns or from diesel engines or from

01:06

fissures in the earth while the canary would die quickly

01:09

or at least stop singing And then the miners would

01:11

skied addle out of there So the canary was the

01:14

leading indicator of a deadly gas leak and miners would

01:17

follow it awful Investors are always anxious to figure out

01:20

what leading indicators air saying about where the economy is

01:23

going Investors kind of live two quarters in the future

01:26

And if they believe we'll have a meaningful slowdown in

01:29

the economy while they'll usually begin selling well ahead of

01:32

them that is The economy or belief in economic growth

01:35

is a leading indicator often of where the broader stock

01:38

market is heading for the stock market generally anticipates the

01:41

economy well One famous canary no longer really in use

01:45

anymore are help wanted lines in the newspaper And yes

01:49

once upon a time those things were on paper way

01:52

before the founders of Glass Door indeed and the others

01:54

were even well invented are born so help wanted lines

01:58

were a leading indicator of the economy If they were

02:01

shrinking the economy was likely to be softening as demand

02:04

for incremental new hires was dissipating And I went the

02:07

other way too So today we look more often it

02:09

things like bond yields albeit with skepticism because the Fed

02:13

can raise and lower bond rates for a variety of

02:15

reasons defending the dollar internationally like they'd raise rates to

02:19

do that or with political back pressure well they might

02:21

lower them to give the stock market a chance TTO

02:23

walked upwards ahead of an election Lower rates mean lower

02:26

bond yields thus making things like equity Dividends are much

02:29

more attractive means of raising cash to you know pay

02:33

the rent Well new housing starts for another big leading

02:35

indicator volatile space But if the smart people of the

02:38

world are green lighting loans for builders to build new

02:41

homes well then a whole lot of people believe that

02:44

the demand will be there for those homes when they're

02:46

finished a year or two or three later Okay so

02:49

those air leading indicators what are lagging ones And why

02:52

would we even care about a lagging indicator like a

02:55

lagging indicator of your death Is well worms eating your

02:58

body And you really just not caring what lagging indicators

03:02

really service a truth telling mechanism to see if we

03:04

got our leading indicators right That is a lagging indicator

03:08

might tell us that we've just finished a big economic

03:11

boom and a really five quarters into a sort of

03:13

soft recession as we see declines in profits from gate

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fees at Disneyland and Disneyworld And we might see unemployment

03:21

rates going up at an active clip And we might

03:23

see interest rates following with the governor hoping the stimulate

03:27

economic activity again Well all of these indicators however only

03:30

exist in a weird kind of vacuum because so many

03:33

cities and even states really have their own financial ecosystem

03:37

Economically speaking right Well the planet called Silicon Valley over

03:41

the last couple of decades has generally grown like a

03:43

bamboo chute on hot sweaty days with only blips of

03:46

economic cyclicality Other areas like Detroit and Central Baltimore can't

03:51

seem to grow no matter how much stimulus the feds

03:54

apply The key takeaway as with any economic indicator is

03:57

that real investor type Wall Street people really don't care

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all that much about what theater economy is doing when

04:02

they put money to work for their clients And after

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all while those economists were PhDs need at least something

04:08

to do with their time So you know why not 00:04:10.769 --> [endTime] opine on lagging and leading economic indicators Oh

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