Volatility Ratio

  

Categories: Derivatives, Metrics

Volatility measures how much a stock price (or any other asset price) is likely to move over a period of time.

Think of it in terms of emotion. You have a volatile friend. At the beginning of the night, they can be smiling and laughing and generally having a good time. An hour later, they're ugly-crying in a bathroom stall. Very volatile.

Some stock prices are like that as well: $20 today...$8 tomorrow...rally to $35 next week. Very volatile. The volatility ratio represents a technical indicator meant to compare near-term price movements with its longer-term volatility.

To calculate the measure, first look at a stock's price range for the day. Subtract its low price from its high price. That equation gives you today's range, known as the TTR (today's true range). Then figure out the ratio of the TTR with the longer-term volatility. This second part gets measured by the average true range for whatever period you're looking at (50 days, 200 days, etc.). The ratio then looks at today's range versus the average range over a period of time. How much more (or less) volatile is the stock today compared to its recent average? That question represents the heart of the volatility ratio.

The measure is meant to clue investors into possible changes in a stock's behavior, predicting breakouts or other changes in its chart pattern.

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Finance: What is the Black Scholes Model...11788 Views

00:00

Finance allah shmoop What is the black scholes model All

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right people Yeah it sounds like something that has to

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do with xu fashion right Black scholes are all the

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rage in paris this year only instead of a bright

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red soul there's is black and there isn't a doctor

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in there as well right Somewhere Okay Okay The black

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scholes stock option valuation model is actually a mathematical formula

00:26

and a whole system for coming up with stock option

00:29

prices for example disney's trading at a hundred bucks a

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share today You see i owe our chief investment officer

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of the milwaukee cardiologists investment club wanted by a call

00:41

option on disney with a strike price at one hundred

00:43

twenty bucks which won't expire for about four months Why

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do you want to buy this Why do you want

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to compete against goldman sachs Best and brightest people who

00:51

make twenty five million dollars a year Not really sure

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about that But regardless you all believe disney is going

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to spike in its stock price the next four months

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And you want to take advantage of it Well how

01:00

much should that hundred twenty dollars Strike stock option cost

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Expires in four months All right this call option is

01:08

notably an american style option that is in american cell

01:12

option You can sell the option any day until it

01:15

expires And traditional black scholes modeling is based on the

01:18

european style option which expires on lee on one day

01:22

at the very end of the period in which the

01:24

option is alive Got it So keep the approaching where

01:28

you gotta think about american sell options are worth more

01:30

because while you have more options in the option so

01:33

the valuations to be a little bit different paying on

01:35

which continent you're rolling the call option dice disney is

01:38

a global company right But here we just want to

01:40

give you the basic gist of how black scholes works

01:43

conceptually and save the math for a more advanced video

01:47

The key idea is that the more volatile the stock

01:50

the more volatile should be the call option underlying it

01:55

and a different strike price is relative to the existing

01:58

stock will have all come mine's a more volatility to

02:01

him as well if you think about it if they

02:03

were looking at one hundred dollars strike price option with

02:06

the stock at one hundred that'd be really volatile Where

02:09

as if they were looking at a one hundred fifty

02:12

dollars strike price option Well that'd be pretty cheap and

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pretty much stay cheap Whether disney was one hundred box

02:17

one hundred five hundred ten ninety nine who wouldn't matter

02:21

Still be cheap because so far out of the money

02:23

right And yes there tons of mathematical errors in the

02:26

black scholes model not least of which is the fact

02:29

that past performance of stocks is not necessarily any indication

02:33

of future performance yet That's what black scholes uses teo

02:37

calculate its volatility here so we got all kinds of

02:40

problems going in Problem is we have nothing better No

02:43

other better option methodology to value things So we used

02:47

black scholes Alright so since we have no other ways

02:50

to navigate our future prognostications i've been driving a car

02:53

by looking in that rear view mirror Well then here's

02:55

what we do essentially the black scholes model takes an

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average waiting of a stock price over a given duration

03:02

and multiplies it by some formula based on its volatility

03:07

So here's a stock with very low volatility last couple

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of years Check out the line graph for a t

03:13

and t kind of a snoozer doesn't really grow in

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only sits there pays a dividend and phone prices are

03:19

getting cheaper It's called skype Okay but here's another that

03:22

has been a hoot of a ride for the good

03:24

the bad the ugly in the form of quotient a

03:27

digital coupon and company Really volatile rocky mountains peaks valleys

03:31

all kinds of stuff Good bad ugly Well you can

03:34

imagine that a call option price with a strike price

03:37

twenty percent above it and tease price would not be

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very expensive because given the low volatility of at and

03:44

t stocked the odds that that's stock itself suddenly breaks

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out above that twenty percent line that was pretty low

03:51

It hadn't done it much in the past And when

03:53

it did it on lee did it by a very

03:55

small amount So if you were writing life insurance against

03:58

the financial death thing he broke out of that twenty

04:01

percent line Well pride wouldn't charge too much for it

04:04

right But then if you look at quotient well a

04:06

price twenty percent above well here or here here seems

04:09

highly likely because the stock trades in huge gaps up

04:13

and down of a few percentage is a day i

04:16

e the same volatility per day that a teen t

04:18

has per month So if you are the person writing

04:21

that call option or selling that call option to these

04:25

kind of loving people in milwaukee or people like him

04:28

and knowing that it would put you on the hook

04:30

to provide shares at a price roughly twenty percent above

04:32

where the stock is currently trading well of course you

04:35

would charge the call option buyer of quotient ah whole

04:38

lot more than you would charge the call option buyer

04:41

of a t and t for that twenty percent above

04:44

the stock price call option that expired at the same

04:47

time Well the question then that black scholes tries to

04:50

answer is just how much more you would charge for

04:53

the highly volatile or high beta quotient stock option versus

04:57

that of tea If you really care about the math

05:00

well then a We're sorry B you should probably take

05:03

a real investing course Not this one and go to

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real business school and see you may need a hobby 00:05:09.79 --> [endTime] We suggest golf or or needle point I'm going

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