Odds of Going Pro

Odds of Going Pro

1
5%

Men's 100-yard freestyle: under 47 seconds, Women's 100-yard freestyle: under 52 seconds

You tweet Erin Andrews to let her know that you're open for interviews regarding your career as a swimmer. You don't hear back, but a few people retweet you for laughs.

2
25%

Men's 100-yard freestyle: under 46 seconds, Women's 100-yard freestyle: under 51 seconds

Your times have plateaued and you doubt you'll get the chance to compete at conference. Fortunately, you majored in computer science. You'll soon be able to write a program that makes you swim faster—or everyone else swim slower.

3
50%

Men's 100-yard freestyle: under 45 seconds, Women's 100-yard freestyle: under 50 seconds

You compete at conference and do well. Your coaches love you and your teammates respect you. Yes, you're truly talented in the pool, but you don't think you have the drive to keep training post-college. You apply for physical therapy school so that you can one day help swimmers like yourself battle swimmer's shoulder. It's a real pain.

4
75%

Men's 100-yard freestyle: under 44 seconds, Women's 100-yard freestyle: under 49 seconds

You compete at conference and you medal: an individual silver and a bronze relay. You smile your best McKayla Maroney smile (#notimpressed). Olympic trials are a month away and these times aren't enough. Cut to you crying in the shower.

5
95%

Men's 100-yard freestyle: under 43 seconds, Women's 100-yard freestyle: under 48 seconds

You're running with the big dogs. In fact, you are a big dog. You were offered a sponsorship deal with Speedo but managed to delay it until you graduate. Olympic trials are in a month and you're attempting to be polite; you already know you're going. You're this close to becoming a real-life competitive athlete. Time to start carb-loading.

Summary:

Ever hear the phrase, "one in a million"? Well, you'll need to be exactly that if you want to go pro. Think about the best high school athlete in your district of 10 high schools. The absolute Big Man in the area. He gets headhunted so hard by colleges that he can barely spare time for his school work, let alone friends. Then, he gets into college and is a total all star there...of the 12 best all stars on his team that year. Well, guess, what? Only one of those guys will be a pro in five years...if this is a top class of athletes out of the the past several years. 

So, even if you're in the 95th percentile of all NCAA athletes in your sport, you've still got a snowball's chance in a microwave of going pro. Not to mention actually mattering at all. More than likely, you'll still be struggling to eke out a living on the bench for a year or stuck on a farm team until you're forced to look for other work. We could bludgeon you with more data and stats, but as you dream about success, just make sure you're hedging your bets.

In other words: enjoy that "alternative" career, Shmooper. (#realtalk)