It’s what makes prices go up, your raise worthless, and the money in your bank account degrade in value: inflation. Ugh.
Unexpected inflation is one of the worst kinds of inflation, since nobody was anticipating it. Nobody, as in: economists, regulators...the people we pay to know what’s up with the economy and inflation and stuff.
When inflation goes up, prices go up. Paychecks follow, albeit at a slower pace. That’s why a raise can be worth nothing: if prices went up and you have the same buying power as a few years ago, then your real income didn’t rise, even if your nominal income did. And if your savings account is only paying you 1% interest, and inflation is 2.5%, then your money is eroding 1.5% in real value every year. With unexpected inflation, your buying power will erode at an even greater rate. As a borrower, inflation is good though, since the real amount you have to pay back is shrinking as prices and incomes rise.
Unexpected inflation happens when economists’ models are wrong, which is...well, we don’t know how often. That’s why there’s so many major schools of economic thought. Even if an economic model might appear to be true to reality...it might not be. We only know when things go wrong that our model is for sure wrong, like when there’s unexpected inflation.
Most modern economies function on Keynesian principles, which means the central bank intervenes when the economy is down, and the policy is to promote spending to keep the economy’s energy up. Yet part of Keynesianism stated that inflation wouldn’t happen with GDP growth was slow...which makes sense, right? Why would prices rise when growth is slow? Usually, if growth is slow, things go on sale, because firms try to attract buyers.
In the 1970s, that part of Keynesianism was shown to be false, as unexpected inflation occurred during a period of slow economic growth, puzzling economists. Hrrmmmmfff.
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Finance: What is Inflation: Adjusted, Hy...18 Views
finance a la shmoop what is inflation-adjusted hyper currency and
commodity no no no no no I said frozen concentrated orange juice right there
that's better commodities that's what this is frozen [milk shake]
concentrated orange juice yeah it's the same whether you buy it here at Uncle [canned orange juice]
cheapies fruit barn or from Amazon or from Safeway it's a total commodity and [barn, Amazon website, Safeway building]
when inflation hits the fan yeah like that then commodity prices are usually [inflation hits ceiling fan]
the first to react commodities you know things like oil and electricity and [oil ships, light bulbs]
roundup weed killer and the price of generic picture frames on Amazon you [weed killer, picture frames on Amazon]
know those things all right well why does commodity pricing even matter well
let's talk about inflation for a sec inflation measures the rate at which
prices of goods and services are rising and they generally rise over time the
greater the level of inflation the lower the purchasing power of your currency
well in a world of inflation taking off going up up up and the Fed raising rates [house floating up with balloons]
hoping to tamp it down down down well equities or stocks and debt or bonds [house floating down]
will get crushed while commodities should just keep going on up up up in [air balloons rising]
lockstep with inflation rates because they're basically a store of cash and
you can turn them into cash so quickly and they don't really change that way in
essence commodities are a good balance to an investment portfolio highly
exposed to oh say the stock market well what else acts this way real estate yeah
it's kind of a commodity or at least it behaves like one in the grips of [air balloons rising]
inflation oil yep gold yep what about currencies commodity well yes and no [oil rig, gold ingots, paper money]
currencies react to other currencies generally on a relative basis but they
behave very much like commodities so then if you turbocharged inflation well [different world currencies]
yes you get then hyperinflation in most times the US dollar has been considered [house rocketing out of orbit]
a relatively stable bet like think Latin American debt in a historical frame that
is the countries were swimming in debt payable in their own currency in the [world map]
1980s and much to the chagrin of the Western countries who loaned them [bags of money in western countries]
billions and billions of dollars those latin-american countries decided to run
the Xerox machine all through the night and weekend printing more and more money [money being printed]
so hyperinflation would be created and the 18 kajillion dollars owed by
Venezuela would feel instead like only a few million bucks to that country and
while the West learned a big lesson about loaning people
irresponsible with her own currency oh and there was that other little one
lesson that the West learned about punitive war reparation rules check out [world map]
1930s vimar germany's hyperinflation currency issues this wheelbarrow full of [wheelbarrow full of money]
german marks yeah at the time this picture was taken it bought a loaf of
bread and only like two glasses of juice juice juice [two orange jews turn into orange juice]
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