Odds of Going Pro

Odds of Going Pro

1
5%

Fastball lower than 90 MPH, sixty-yard dash in 6.6 seconds 

It was a great run, it was a fantastic part of your life, but that glove isn't going to see the hallowed fields of baseball professionalism. Time to see what else life has in store for you.

2
25%

Fastball 90 MPH, sixty-yard dash in 6.5 seconds 

Nope, it's still not happening. You may have seen regular play, but you can't keep up at the pro level. Even for that shoddy single-A team that plays in a former shopping mall parking lot.

3
50%

Fastball 91 MPH, sixty-yard dash in 6.45 seconds 

Okay, so you made the grade in college, and that might prompt you to look further. But the pros don't want anyone who just kept the first-base line secure, or who could knock in a few runners every now and then. You'll need to do a lot better, and if you want to get to the pros, you're going to need to push it all to the limit. Even then, you need to be ready to hear, "Sorry, no" a lot.

4
75%

Fastball 92–95 MPH, sixty-yard dash in 6.4 seconds 

You were good enough to make the team look good, and you might think about testing the choppy waters of pro ball. Go to some tryouts and ask the scouts what they think. You may have a skill or set of skills that piques their interest. If you do, keep on trucking. If you don't… well, there's always coaching.

5
95%

Fastball above 95 MPH, sixty-yard dash in less than 6.4 seconds 

You should go to the pro tryouts. As often as you can. Even at this level, landing a pro team is going to take everything you have, but the scouts might see something and their farm team may need someone in your position. It sounds like a cliché movie, but in this case, it might actually have a sliver of a chance of coming true.

Summary:

Ever hear the phrase, "one in a million"? Well, you'll need to be exactly that if you want to go pro. Think about the best high school athlete in your district of 10 high schools. The absolute Big Man in the area. He gets headhunted so hard by colleges that he can barely spare time for his school work, let alone friends. Then, he gets into college and is a total all star there...of the 12 best all stars on his team that year. Well, guess, what? Only one of those guys will be a pro in five years...if this is a top class of athletes out of the the past several years. 

So, even if you're in the 95th percentile of all NCAA athletes in your sport, you've still got a snowball's chance in a microwave of going pro. Not to mention actually mattering at all. More than likely, you'll still be struggling to eke out a living on the bench for a year or stuck on a farm team until you're forced to look for other work. We could bludgeon you with more data and stats, but as you dream about success, just make sure you're hedging your bets.

In other words: enjoy that "alternative" career, Shmooper. (#realtalk)