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Odds of Hanging On

Just as tough as getting in. Even if you do happen to stumble into something wonderful doesn’t mean there’s any guarantee you’re going to be remembered a year from now. Many actors get a part on a TV show or in a movie and feel like they’ve made the big time. They get the huge house and the fancy car, and suddenly their show is canceled and they’re a nobody again. Sounds like everything you’ve ever dreamed of, right?

And there’s a bigger problem here as well–people don’t go to the movies like they used to. In 1980, “Hollywood” made 750 movies; in 2010, “Hollywood” made about 150. The market is shrinking. The “back end” business of DVD sales and television reruns has largely been crushed by the internet–consumers can still get all of these things but at a small fraction of what they used to cost. As a result, Hollywood’s revenues from movies have started to shrink.

Now add to that the DVR/Tivo universe and the ability (and desire) of consumers to skip commercials. Dollars from advertising from television have started to decline and most pundits think this shrink will continue for decades–fewer jobs, more difficult competition, less opportunity in the traditional venues. Wanna be a YouTube star? Awesome. Just get a real job first.