20-Year Prospect

20-Year Prospect

There's a lot of talk out there when it comes to wind-powered energy, but not as much walk. Every week it seems like some new King Arthur's Court of Wind Power is declaring that in, say, fifteen years, wind will make up some huge amount of our energy infrastructure (source). But those are only estimates.

So what's wind power really going to look like in the future? 2,000 GW is only the "advanced" scenario, meaning a lot of change in consumer and industry habits, as well as government subsidies to keep wind afloat and affordable until the world slowly releases its grip on petroleum (source). 

More realistically, wind power will continue to develop in Europe as it has to this point, with Spain and Germany leading the way. But there's a new player in town: Asia. Twenty-five million people work in wind fields in China alone (source). 

Not that the U.S. won't be a big player, too. The best case scenario would be a kind of green arms race between China and the U.S., that would be fighting for the number one spot as biggest global wind producer. For China, the problem is a lack of wind (source). For the United States, it's a matter of getting policy wonks who are reluctant to invest outside of oil and petroleum to keep subsidizing wind farms, with the eventual hope that they become cost-efficient.

The bottom line is the industry will continue to grow. The only uncertainty lies in how quickly it will grow.